:PROPERTIES:
:ID:       6d2e3f4a-5b6c-7d8e-9f0a-1b2c3d4e5f6a
:ID:       d28adac8-08a1-40c4-ae43-b5d8d7b1743f
:ID:       528a0f6c-6fd6-41ed-9d59-237958bdaef2
:ID:       57f9538a-6270-4302-8d07-d742168419eb
:CREATED:  [2026-05-25 Mon]
:END:
#+title: Adoption
#+filetags: :passepartout:strategy:adoption:growth:

This is the canonical adoption and growth document. It replaces the
earlier separate notes on growth-strategy, effects-flywheel, adoption
game theory, and the social-first alternative — those are now absorbed
here.

Social and institutional adoption are two separate processes with
independent dynamics. Each has its own phases, defined by different
metrics. They run concurrently and reinforce each other, but neither is a
precondition for the other. Each section below defines its own phases.

Phases are distinct from the architecture's development Stages (Stage 0
= now/Linux-hosted, Stage 1 = social protocol, Stage 2 = verification
TUI, Stage 3 = Lisp machine, Stage 4 = inference ASIC). The clock for
both adoptions starts when Stage 2 ships (TUI complete). See
[[id:dc2e4f22-1c4c-5d4a-a151-f96e5d3b0d70][Development timeline]] for the Stage breakdown.

* Social adoption

Social adoption tracks the growth of the social protocol network — users
on the social graph, instances participating in the protocol. The phases
are defined by orders of magnitude of users.

**Phases and dynamics

| Phase | Users | What marks the boundary | Flywheel effect | Growth driver | Revenue | Failure mode |
|-------+-------+------------------------+-----------------+---------------+---------+--------------|
| 0 | 0→10K | First organized communities onboarded as full-bundle groups | The bundle is proven for real coordination | Neighboring communities see it working and onboard — organic spread | $20-100K fees | No community finds PMF — the unified bundle is too complex |
| 1 | 10K→100K | Community refugees and creators arrive; organic spread between neighboring communities | Reputation graph from Phase 0 communities makes migrations stick — users build identity they won't abandon | Platform fees bypassed — economic value accrues on-protocol; creator audiences follow | $1-5M fees + subs | Migrations don't stick — communities leave when crisis passes |
| 2 | 100K→10M | Contract marketplace reaches critical mass; cross-jurisdiction transactions emerge | Freelancers and cross-border users trust the reputation graph for escrow and arbitration | Marketplace attracts more users; reputation deepens further | $20-100M fees | Contract marketplace stalls — no dispute resolution trust |
| 3 | 10M→1B | Institution crossover — universities, newsrooms, regulators join the existing network | Institutions join not because they chose to, but because their users are already there | Protocol becomes default identity — traditional barriers to entry become irrelevant | $210-750M | Social graph stalls at niche — never reaches mainstream critical mass |

Each phase spans roughly one order of magnitude of users. The phase
boundary is crossed when the accumulated effects from the previous phase
generate enough growth driver to reach the next scale — it is a
consequence of the flywheel, not a timeline that can be accelerated by
spending more money.

**Phase details**

**Phase 0 — Organized communities (0 → 10K users):** Onboard HOAs,
clubs, cooperatives, PTAs — any group that uses 3+ separate tools and
has a leader who can migrate everyone at once. The group already exists;
the cold start is solved by group density. Ship all five layers
(identity, content, payments, contracts, governance) from day one
because organized communities need all of them.

**Phase 1 — Refugees and creators (10K → 100K users):** Monitor
deplatforming events. When a subreddit of 10K+ users gets banned, offer
a ready-made community space within 24 hours. Meanwhile ship creator
tools (LSAT, Lightning subscriptions) for OnlyFans/Patreon refugees.
This is the highest-ARPU segment — creators earning $50K-500K/yr with
strong incentive to bypass intermediaries.

**Phase 2 — Freelancers and cross-border (100K → 10M users):** The
reputation graph from Phase 0-1 communities now carries real weight.
Freelancers and small businesses in weak-rule-of-law jurisdictions use
the protocol for verifiable contracts and escrow. This is the hardest
technical build (full SCAL stack, arbitration guilds) but the strongest
moat — no one else offers verifiable contract enforcement without a
state.

**Phase 3 — Institution crossover (10M → 1B+):** At this scale
institutions can no longer ignore the network because their users are on
it. Universities issue verified credentials. Newsrooms publish with
provenance. Regulators adopt social protocol attestation because it is
the standard.

* Institutional adoption

Institutional adoption tracks the penetration of verified computing into
regulated markets. Its phases are defined by market structure transitions
— each phase marks a shift in how verification is bought, mandated, or
priced. User counts are not the metric; the metric is whether
verification has crossed a structural threshold in a domain.

**Phases and dynamics

| Phase | What marks the boundary | Flywheel effect | Growth driver | Key metric | Revenue driver | Failure mode |
|-------+------------------------+-----------------+---------------+------------+----------------+--------------|
| 0 | First compliance engagement — gate replaces annual audit ($200K-$1M) with subscription ($50K/yr) | Compliance cost drops 10x — the buyer saves | Competitors must match — institutional sales accelerate | First case study | Domain gate packages, verification appliance | First engagement fails to deliver — poisons reference |
| 1 | Verification API gateway — value decoupled from instance adoption; any LLM user is a customer | AI safety shifts from probabilistic to structural | Any company using LLMs is a customer decoupled from instance adoption | Instances deployed; API gateway users | API gateway subscriptions; gate rule subscriptions | No high-profile AI harm event to drive conversion |
| 2 | First regulator encodes a rule as a gate — adoption in that domain becomes mandatory | Enforcement becomes automatic, not annual paper<br><br>Accumulated edge cases from all instances | Every regulated entity in that domain must adopt — step function<br><br>Competitive advantage for adopters — those off-network fall behind | Regulated entities onboarded per domain | Mandatory adoption; insurance products | First regulator encode captured by incumbent (backdoored standard) |
| 3 | Insurance differentiates on verification — unverified code costs more to operate than verified | Unverified code costs 10x to insure<br><br>Network effect: each new parameter makes the store more valuable for everyone | Economic necessity — not preference, not regulation, but cost of doing business<br><br>No institution can be pressured or acquired to remove accumulated knowledge | Certified instances | Certification fees; insurance premiums | ASIC path stalls — verification remains a performance tax |
| 4 | Installed base is default infrastructure — a decade of attestations cannot be replicated | Installed base moat — cannot replicate a decade of attestations | New entrants cannot compete regardless of funding | Industry standard | Infrastructure rent; marketplace fees | Technology paradigm shift disrupts category |

**Phase details**

**Phase 0 — Compliance engagements:** The buyer is a compliance officer
who just failed an audit or sees the cost of the current process
spiraling. The gate replaces an annual audit ($200K-$1M) with a
subscription ($50K/yr). First sale funds the team. Each engagement adds
to the gate rule library.

**Phase 1 — API gateway:** The verification API gateway decouples value
from instance adoption. Any company using LLMs can route calls through
the gateway and get a proof log — no instance required. This seeds the
concept of verifiable computation in the market. Institutional sales
compound as referenceable case studies accumulate.

**Phase 2 — Regulator encode:** First regulator encode is the single
most leveraged event. When a regulator encodes a rule as a gate
specification, every regulated entity in that domain must adopt. Likely
candidates: EU AI Act, NIS2, or a forward-leaning national regulator.
After this, growth in that domain becomes mandatory.

**Phase 3+ — Insurance loop:** Actuaries price verified instances lower
than unverified. The cost of non-verification exceeds the cost of
adoption. Growth becomes economic necessity.

* How the two adoptions interact

The social and institutional adoptions run on independent clocks, but
they reinforce each other at every crossover:

- **Revenue funds build:** Institutional compliance sales generate
  revenue from day one, funding the social protocol development before
  the social network has any users.
- **Network provides distribution:** At scale, institutional verification
  products sell as fulfillment orders to a network that already has
  users — no cold start for each new product.
- **Users bridge the gap:** Enterprise employees get DIDs from their
  company's PDS and can join social protocol communities with zero
  friction. Social protocol communities naturally need verification for
  contracts and votes.
- **Edge cases compound:** The institutional regression suite feeds every
  deployed instance. The social protocol's contract volume generates
  real-world edge cases that make the suite more valuable for
  institutional certification.
- **Identity converges:** Institutional gate attestations and social
  protocol reputation both anchor to the same DID. Over time the
  distinction between "corporate verified identity" and "community
  reputation" blurs — they are the same cryptographic graph.

**Correlation not causation:** Institutional Phase 2 (regulator encode)
tends to occur somewhere in the Social Phase 2-3 range, because a
regulator needs visible evidence that verifiable computing works in
practice before encoding a rule. But this is correlation, not causation
— a forward-leaning regulator could encode early (social Phase 1) or a
conservative one could hold out until social Phase 4. The social network
does not cause the regulator to act; it provides the proof of concept
that lowers the regulator's political risk.

**Comparison at a glance:**

| Dimension | Institutional | Social |
|-----------+----------------+-------------|
| First customer | CISO, compliance buyer | HOA president, club leader, creator |
| First revenue | $2-12M (year one) | $20-100K (year one) |
| Time to $10M ARR | 6-18 months | 2-4 years |
| Startup cost | Low (revenue-funded) | Low (fees fund growth) |
| Marketing cost | Sales team + compliance | Community + product-led |
| Key skill | Enterprise sales | Consumer product + platform design |
| Moat type | Regulatory + insurance | Installed base + attestation history |
| Moat durability | Good (legal) | Strong (practical) |
| Entry vectors | One (compliance pain) | Four (publishing, payments, contracts, identity) |
| Failure mode | Wrong pricing, too early | Any vector stalls — but all four must |

See also: [[id:92ccd074-04a0-4e45-a44f-9da24ea20a9b][Impact]] — social, cultural, political, scientific, geopolitical, and technological consequences of broad adoption,
and [[id:72db9428-d6e4-472d-9693-49335f888e48][Game theory]] — why the dynamics are structural, not just plausible.

* References

- [[id:8c7b9812-f8d6-4347-8915-ce8e520b7914][Social protocol entry strategy]] — tactical go-to-market for community
  onboarding
- [[id:ed05cab4-88e9-4e25-b7c9-346fa39c69a0][Revenue]] — detailed revenue streams by phase and stream
- [[id:dc2e4f22-1c4c-5d4a-a151-f96e5d3b0d70][Development timeline]] — Phase Zero vs End State lines-of-code estimates
- [[id:aa6d062e-a520-5d14-8773-00687ed9c689][Moats]] — competitive barriers
- [[id:827bc546-e887-5b7c-9b65-6392beaf0920][Verification monopoly]] — evaluation harness and certification