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fix: ** label:** → *label:* (inline bold, not headings)

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2026-05-23 12:13:22 +00:00
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@@ -11,30 +11,30 @@ The growth curve is logistic, not exponential from day one. Enterprise first (li
* Phase 0 → 1: Zero to Enterprise (0 → 100 instances, 3-12 months) * Phase 0 → 1: Zero to Enterprise (0 → 100 instances, 3-12 months)
** Customer:** Enterprise compliance teams. Clear buyer (CISO), existing budget, pain that maps directly to gate rules. *Customer:* Enterprise compliance teams. Clear buyer (CISO), existing budget, pain that maps directly to gate rules.
** Growth lever:** Enterprise sales + direct integration. No network effects yet — value must be real without anyone else using it. *Growth lever:* Enterprise sales + direct integration. No network effects yet — value must be real without anyone else using it.
** How it works:** *How it works:*
1. Ship the MVP ([[file:time-estimates.org]]) — a Passepartout that verifies code, applies gate rules, and produces a compliance report. 1. Ship the MVP ([[file:time-estimates.org]]) — a Passepartout that verifies code, applies gate rules, and produces a compliance report.
2. First sale is a compliance engagement: encode a regulation as gate rules, verify the customer's deployment, produce a report their auditor accepts. 2. First sale is a compliance engagement: encode a regulation as gate rules, verify the customer's deployment, produce a report their auditor accepts.
3. Each engagement funds the next. Gate rule library grows with every customer. This compounds — each new regulation encoded is a product, not a project. 3. Each engagement funds the next. Gate rule library grows with every customer. This compounds — each new regulation encoded is a product, not a project.
4. The compute marketplace ([[file:compute-marketplace.org]]) bootstraps with one provider (you) selling verification to smaller instances. No liquidity problem because you are both sides of the market initially. 4. The compute marketplace ([[file:compute-marketplace.org]]) bootstraps with one provider (you) selling verification to smaller instances. No liquidity problem because you are both sides of the market initially.
** Key metric:** Deployed instances. Gate package revenue. Regulations encoded. *Key metric:* Deployed instances. Gate package revenue. Regulations encoded.
** Failure mode:** Wrong pricing. Too early for market. The compliance buyer exists but the product must replace an existing process, not add a new line item. *Failure mode:* Wrong pricing. Too early for market. The compliance buyer exists but the product must replace an existing process, not add a new line item.
** Phase 0 revenue:** $2M-$12M (from [[file:investment-thesis.org]]). Funds the team, keeps the lights on. *Phase 0 revenue:* $2M-$12M (from [[file:investment-thesis.org]]). Funds the team, keeps the lights on.
* Phase 1: 1 to 10³ — Enterprise to Developer Ecosystem (100 → 10,000 instances, 12-24 months) * Phase 1: 1 to 10³ — Enterprise to Developer Ecosystem (100 → 10,000 instances, 12-24 months)
** Customer:** Two-sided — enterprise compliance (continuing Phase 0) plus individual developers adopting Passepartout through AGPL. *Customer:* Two-sided — enterprise compliance (continuing Phase 0) plus individual developers adopting Passepartout through AGPL.
** Growth lever:** Open-source adoption + platform economics. The gate rule SDK lets developers create and sell their own gate rules. The marketplace has supply. *Growth lever:* Open-source adoption + platform economics. The gate rule SDK lets developers create and sell their own gate rules. The marketplace has supply.
** How network effects kick in:** *How network effects kick in:*
1. /Proof library compounding:/ Each new instance contributes edge cases to the regression suite ([[file:collective-regression-suite.org]]). Ten instances have a good proof library; a hundred have a great one; a thousand have a library no single organization could build alone. The curve is super-linear in instances. 1. /Proof library compounding:/ Each new instance contributes edge cases to the regression suite ([[file:collective-regression-suite.org]]). Ten instances have a good proof library; a hundred have a great one; a thousand have a library no single organization could build alone. The curve is super-linear in instances.
@@ -42,19 +42,19 @@ The growth curve is logistic, not exponential from day one. Enterprise first (li
3. /Attestation starts working:/ With 100+ instances, a track record of correct verifications carries weight. The attestation marketplace ([[file:agora-contracts.org]]) has enough data for reputation scores. The first insurance products become possible. 3. /Attestation starts working:/ With 100+ instances, a track record of correct verifications carries weight. The attestation marketplace ([[file:agora-contracts.org]]) has enough data for reputation scores. The first insurance products become possible.
** Revenue growth:** $10M-$50M. Verification appliances scale from project to program. Marketplace fees begin. Agora usernames ([[file:agora-usernames.org]]) start generating recurring revenue. *Revenue growth:* $10M-$50M. Verification appliances scale from project to program. Marketplace fees begin. Agora usernames ([[file:agora-usernames.org]]) start generating recurring revenue.
** Key metric:** Third-party gate rules published. Marketplace monthly transaction volume. Active developer count. *Key metric:* Third-party gate rules published. Marketplace monthly transaction volume. Active developer count.
** Failure mode:** Developer adoption stalls because the AGPL experience is not polished enough. Gate rule SDK is too hard to use. This phase requires the most product attention — the first thousand developers must succeed. *Failure mode:* Developer adoption stalls because the AGPL experience is not polished enough. Gate rule SDK is too hard to use. This phase requires the most product attention — the first thousand developers must succeed.
* Phase 2: 10³ to 10⁶ — Developer to Mainstream (10,000 → 1M, 2-5 years) * Phase 2: 10³ to 10⁶ — Developer to Mainstream (10,000 → 1M, 2-5 years)
** Customer:** Consumers + small businesses. PDS as a service ([[file:pds-as-a-service.org]]) becomes a consumer product. Agora usernames go mainstream. *Customer:* Consumers + small businesses. PDS as a service ([[file:pds-as-a-service.org]]) becomes a consumer product. Agora usernames go mainstream.
** Growth lever:** Consumer network effects. Each new PDS makes the Agora network more valuable. Each new user is a potential compute provider, gate rule buyer, and data licensor. *Growth lever:* Consumer network effects. Each new PDS makes the Agora network more valuable. Each new user is a potential compute provider, gate rule buyer, and data licensor.
** How it works:** *How it works:*
1. /Stoa premium ([[file:revenue-hub.org]]) ships enterprise features./ SSO, compliance dashboards, fleet management. The enterprise buyer from Phase 1 upgrades from project to org-wide deployment. 1. /Stoa premium ([[file:revenue-hub.org]]) ships enterprise features./ SSO, compliance dashboards, fleet management. The enterprise buyer from Phase 1 upgrades from project to org-wide deployment.
@@ -64,19 +64,19 @@ The growth curve is logistic, not exponential from day one. Enterprise first (li
4. /Insurance marketplace forms./ With 10K+ instances and 2+ years of verifiable track records, actuaries can price proof insurance. The first products: /gate rule correctness insurance/ and /compute provider SLA insurance/. 4. /Insurance marketplace forms./ With 10K+ instances and 2+ years of verifiable track records, actuaries can price proof insurance. The first products: /gate rule correctness insurance/ and /compute provider SLA insurance/.
** Revenue growth:** $50M-$500M. Compute marketplace fees become the dominant revenue stream. PDS hosting at scale. Username registry renewals compound. *Revenue growth:* $50M-$500M. Compute marketplace fees become the dominant revenue stream. PDS hosting at scale. Username registry renewals compound.
** Key metric:** Agora identities. PDS count. Verified operations per day. Marketplace gross merchandise value. *Key metric:* Agora identities. PDS count. Verified operations per day. Marketplace gross merchandise value.
** Failure mode:** Consumer adoption requires UX polish the engineering team may deprioritize. The terminal-based Stoa works for developers but not for mainstream users. Qt integration (Stoa v2 from [[file:stoa.org]]) is the gating dependency. *Failure mode:* Consumer adoption requires UX polish the engineering team may deprioritize. The terminal-based Stoa works for developers but not for mainstream users. Qt integration (Stoa v2 from [[file:stoa.org]]) is the gating dependency.
* Phase 3: 10⁶ to 10⁹ — Mainstream to Infrastructure (1M → 1B+, 5-15 years) * Phase 3: 10⁶ to 10⁹ — Mainstream to Infrastructure (1M → 1B+, 5-15 years)
** Customer:** Nation-states. Enterprises that cannot justify unverified infrastructure. Anyone who needs insurance. *Customer:* Nation-states. Enterprises that cannot justify unverified infrastructure. Anyone who needs insurance.
** Growth lever:** Regulatory mandate + insurance feedback loop. Verification is no longer a choice — it is a requirement for participation in the insured economy. *Growth lever:* Regulatory mandate + insurance feedback loop. Verification is no longer a choice — it is a requirement for participation in the insured economy.
** How the loop closes:** *How the loop closes:*
1. /Verification monopoly ([[file:verification-monopoly.org]]):/ The early player's gate library is the largest, most battle-tested, most cited. Regulators reference it. Insurers require it. A new entrant cannot replicate 10+ years of edge cases embedded in 1M+ instances. 1. /Verification monopoly ([[file:verification-monopoly.org]]):/ The early player's gate library is the largest, most battle-tested, most cited. Regulators reference it. Insurers require it. A new entrant cannot replicate 10+ years of edge cases embedded in 1M+ instances.
@@ -84,11 +84,11 @@ The growth curve is logistic, not exponential from day one. Enterprise first (li
3. /Nation-state adoption:/ The compute marketplace is a sovereign asset. Countries that run their own triad instances have verified digital sovereignty. Countries that do not are dependent on foreign verification infrastructure. The geopolitics are self-reinforcing (see [[file:triad-systemic-effects.org]]). 3. /Nation-state adoption:/ The compute marketplace is a sovereign asset. Countries that run their own triad instances have verified digital sovereignty. Countries that do not are dependent on foreign verification infrastructure. The geopolitics are self-reinforcing (see [[file:triad-systemic-effects.org]]).
** Revenue growth:** $1B+. Certification monopoly revenue. Infrastructure lock-in rent. Marketplace fees at global scale. Insurance underwriting profits. *Revenue growth:* $1B+. Certification monopoly revenue. Infrastructure lock-in rent. Marketplace fees at global scale. Insurance underwriting profits.
** Key metric:** Percentage of global compute running on verified stack. Number of nation-state triad deployments. Insurance premiums written against gate rules. *Key metric:* Percentage of global compute running on verified stack. Number of nation-state triad deployments. Insurance premiums written against gate rules.
** Failure mode:** Technology shift makes the approach obsolete. A fundamentally different verification paradigm (quantum proof systems, for example) could bypass ACL2. The installed base is a moat, not a guarantee. *Failure mode:* Technology shift makes the approach obsolete. A fundamentally different verification paradigm (quantum proof systems, for example) could bypass ACL2. The installed base is a moat, not a guarantee.
* Growth Curve Summary * Growth Curve Summary