gbrain: sync converted org-mode brain files
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:ID: 45258a2d-1675-562c-9024-5d1eb2f1ea56
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:ID: a5d59d12-b23e-58d6-a81b-9b8b06556949
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:END:
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#+title: The Evaluation Harness — Collective Regression Suite as Certification Monopoly
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#+title: Evaluation Harness
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#+filetags: :passepartout:economics:monopoly:certification:big-money:revenue:evaluation:regression:suite:collective:
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#+hierarchy: 1 vision 2 service 3 spec
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@@ -29,6 +29,8 @@ The accumulated regression suite — thousands of edge cases from every deployed
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**Target:** AI labs proving their agents' capabilities, enterprise procurement requiring independent verification.
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**Price:** $50K-$200K per certification.
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**Model certification extends this:** the same evaluation harness certifies not just gate decisions but model validity. A neural force field or docking scoring function is certified against the provenance store — validated training data, benchmark performance, distribution match pass rate, validity envelope coverage. The certification answers: "is this model trustworthy for this domain?" not just "did the gate decide correctly." A model that passes provenance certification earns the same verified badge as a gate stack that passes the regression suite. For enterprise buyers running regulated simulations (drug discovery, materials design, structural engineering), model certification may matter more than gate certification — it tells them whether the numbers they are looking at are physically meaningful.
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The regression suite grows with every deployment, making the certification increasingly valuable over time. The early player's suite is the largest because they started first. This is the [[id:a5d59d12-b23e-58d6-a81b-9b8b06556949][collective regression suite]] mechanism in action.
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10 certifications in year one = $500K-$2M.
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