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ideas/agora-contracts.org
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@@ -7,111 +7,105 @@
Agora's infrastructure — DIDs (identity), DIDComm (communication), PDS (state), gate rules (logic), ACL2 (verification) — together form a full smart contract platform. Every piece is already in the architecture. This page describes what contracts are possible, how they generate revenue, and why Agora's approach is structurally stronger than existing platforms. Agora's infrastructure — DIDs (identity), DIDComm (communication), PDS (state), gate rules (logic), ACL2 (verification) — together form a full smart contract platform. Every piece is already in the architecture. This page describes what contracts are possible, how they generate revenue, and why Agora's approach is structurally stronger than existing platforms.
--- * Why Agora Contracts Are Different
## Why Agora Contracts Are Different Existing smart contract platforms (Ethereum, Solana, Cosmos) verify only that execution followed the rules. Agora's ACL2 prover verifies that the /rules themselves/ are correct with respect to a formal specification. This is strictly stronger:
Existing smart contract platforms (Ethereum, Solana, Cosmos) verify only that execution followed the rules. Agora's ACL2 prover verifies that the *rules themselves* are correct with respect to a formal specification. This is strictly stronger: - Ethereum: The contract ran according to the EVM bytecode (execution validity)
- Agora: The contract is correct with respect to its specification, AND it ran correctly (correctness + execution)
- **Ethereum**: "The contract ran according to the EVM bytecode" (execution validity)
- **Agora**: "The contract is correct with respect to its specification, AND it ran correctly" (correctness + execution)
This means Agora contracts can encode real-world regulations (HIPAA, SOC2, GDPR) as gate rules and prove that a contract execution satisfies them. No existing platform does this. This means Agora contracts can encode real-world regulations (HIPAA, SOC2, GDPR) as gate rules and prove that a contract execution satisfies them. No existing platform does this.
--- * What Contracts Enable
## What Contracts Enable ** 1. Verified Smart Contracts
### 1. Verified Smart Contracts
Standard programmable contracts (escrow, swaps, voting, DAO governance) but every execution produces a machine-checkable ACL2 proof. Standard programmable contracts (escrow, swaps, voting, DAO governance) but every execution produces a machine-checkable ACL2 proof.
**How it works:** How it works:
- Contract terms encoded as gate rules - Contract terms encoded as gate rules
- State transitions are PDS updates - State transitions are PDS updates
- Every transaction runs through the symbolic engine and produces a proof log - Every transaction runs through the symbolic engine and produces a proof log
- Any instance can verify any other instance's contract execution by replaying the proof - Any instance can verify any other instance's contract execution by replaying the proof
**Revenue:** Transaction fee per contract execution ([[file:compute-marketplace.org][compute marketplace]]), deployment fee per verified contract, premium for certification weight. Revenue: Transaction fee per contract execution ([[file:compute-marketplace.org][compute marketplace]]), deployment fee per verified contract, premium for certification weight.
**Comparison:** Ethereum collects ~$20B/yr in transaction fees. Agora's verifiably correct contracts target the same market with a stronger value proposition. The limitation is liquidity, not technology — network effects determine adoption. Comparison: Ethereum collects ~$20B/yr in transaction fees. Agora's verifiably correct contracts target the same market with a stronger value proposition. The limitation is liquidity, not technology — network effects determine adoption.
### 2. Multi-Instance Governance Contracts ** 2. Multi-Instance Governance Contracts
Organizations running multiple triad instances need contracts that span instances: cross-instance policy, unified compliance, federated identity. Organizations running multiple triad instances need contracts that span instances: cross-instance policy, unified compliance, federated identity.
**Use cases:** Use cases:
- Enterprise: "All instances in the finance department must apply the SOX gate rule set" - Enterprise: all instances in the finance department must apply the SOX gate rule set
- Consortium: "Each member instance votes on protocol upgrades" - Consortium: each member instance votes on protocol upgrades
- Supply chain: "Instance A verifies shipment, Instance B verifies payment, both must agree" - Supply chain: Instance A verifies shipment, Instance B verifies payment, both must agree
**Revenue:** Enterprise governance tier (annual license), per-instance fee. Revenue: Enterprise governance tier (annual license), per-instance fee.
### 3. Liquid Democracy Infrastructure ** 3. Liquid Democracy Infrastructure
Agora's liquid democracy enables delegation-based voting where votes can be transferred and proxies can be verified. Agora's liquid democracy enables delegation-based voting where votes can be transferred and proxies can be verified.
**Use cases:** Use cases:
- DAO governance (token-weighted or identity-weighted voting) - DAO governance (token-weighted or identity-weighted voting)
- Organizational proxy voting (shareholder meetings) - Organizational proxy voting (shareholder meetings)
- Delegated verification (trust someone's gate rule attestation) - Delegated verification (trust someone's gate rule attestation)
- Quadratic voting for public goods funding - Quadratic voting for public goods funding
**Revenue:** Per-vote transaction fee, governance contract setup fee, premium for verified anonymous voting. Revenue: Per-vote transaction fee, governance contract setup fee, premium for verified anonymous voting.
### 4. Attestation and Reputation ** 4. Attestation and Reputation
DIDs produce verifiable actions. Over time, every DID accumulates a track record of correct verifications, successful contract executions, and honest attestations. DIDs produce verifiable actions. Over time, every DID accumulates a track record of correct verifications, successful contract executions, and honest attestations.
**Marketplace primitives:** Marketplace primitives:
- Attest that a DID meets certification criteria (identity verification, proof track record, errors-and-omissions insurance) - Attest that a DID meets certification criteria (identity verification, proof track record, errors-and-omissions insurance)
- Reputation scores based on verifiable history - Reputation scores based on verifiable history
- Reputation staking: put tokens behind your attestation, lose them if wrong - Reputation staking: put tokens behind your attestation, lose them if wrong
- Attestation insurance: insure against incorrect attestations - Attestation insurance: insure against incorrect attestations
**Revenue:** Attestation fee (one-time or annual), verification fee per reputation query, commission on staked attestations. Revenue: Attestation fee (one-time or annual), verification fee per reputation query, commission on staked attestations.
### 5. Insurance Marketplace ** 5. Insurance Marketplace
If certification carries legal weight (as described in [[file:compute-marketplace.org][compute marketplace]]), then: If certification carries legal weight (as described in [[file:compute-marketplace.org][compute marketplace]]), then:
- **Proof insurance:** A provider insures their verification results. If a proof turns out wrong, the insurance pays out. Premiums are set by actuarial gate rules based on the provider's track record. - Proof insurance: A provider insures their verification results. If a proof turns out wrong, the insurance pays out. Premiums are set by actuarial gate rules based on the provider's track record.
- **Contract execution insurance:** Insure against bugs in contract code (even ACL2-verified contracts can have specification errors). - Contract execution insurance: Insure against bugs in contract code (even ACL2-verified contracts can have specification errors).
- **Reputation staking pool:** A reinsurance pool where multiple providers stake against each other's attestations. - Reputation staking pool: A reinsurance pool where multiple providers stake against each other's attestations.
**Revenue:** Premiums, pool fees, actuarial gate rule licensing. Revenue: Premiums, pool fees, actuarial gate rule licensing.
**Why this is defensible:** Insurance requires capital and track record. A new entrant cannot bootstrap reputation overnight. The early player accumulates both, creating a moat that compounds with every honest attestation. Why this is defensible: Insurance requires capital and track record. A new entrant cannot bootstrap reputation overnight. The early player accumulates both, creating a moat that compounds with every honest attestation.
### 6. Data Sharing and Licensing Contracts ** 6. Data Sharing and Licensing Contracts
PDS-to-PDS data sharing encoded as gate rules. Two instances agree: "Instance A may query fact X from Instance B's PDS, subject to gate rule Y, in exchange for Z tokens." PDS-to-PDS data sharing encoded as gate rules. Two instances agree: Instance A may query fact X from Instance B's PDS, subject to gate rule Y, in exchange for Z tokens.
**Use cases:** Use cases:
- Personal data licensing: "My health data is available to research instances under GDPR-compliant gate rules" - Personal data licensing: my health data is available to research instances under GDPR-compliant gate rules
- Enterprise data marketplace: "Our compliance audit trail is available to customers under NDA gate rules" - Enterprise data marketplace: our compliance audit trail is available to customers under NDA gate rules
- Verified dataset access: "This ML training dataset is licensed for non-commercial use, verified by gate rule" - Verified dataset access: this ML training dataset is licensed for non-commercial use, verified by gate rule
**Revenue:** Commission on each data transaction (the compute marketplace extended to data), licensing templates. Revenue: Commission on each data transaction (the compute marketplace extended to data), licensing templates.
### 7. Namespace Sub-Leasing and Auction ** 7. Namespace Sub-Leasing and Auction
Premium usernames ([[file:agora-usernames.org][agora-usernames]]) can be sub-leased between DIDs. The registry takes a commission on each lease. Premium usernames ([[file:agora-usernames.org][agora-usernames]]) can be sub-leased between DIDs. The registry takes a commission on each lease.
**Revenue:** Commission per lease transaction, auction fees for contested names, premium for verified ownership (prove you hold the key for a popular handle without revealing it). Revenue: Commission per lease transaction, auction fees for contested names, premium for verified ownership.
### 8. Dispute Resolution ** 8. Dispute Resolution
When two Agora instances disagree on a contract execution, submit to a verified arbitrator. The arbitrator runs the contract in their own Passepartout and the proof log resolves the ambiguity unambiguously — the dispute is about facts, not interpretations, because the contract terms are formal gate rules. When two Agora instances disagree on a contract execution, submit to a verified arbitrator. The arbitrator runs the contract in their own Passepartout and the proof log resolves the ambiguity unambiguously — the dispute is about facts, not interpretations, because the contract terms are formal gate rules.
**Revenue:** Fee per resolution, premium for reputation-weighted arbitration (arbitrators with long track records charge more). Revenue: Fee per resolution, premium for reputation-weighted arbitration (arbitrators with long track records charge more).
--- * Contract Platform Revenue Summary
## Contract Platform Revenue Summary
| Primitive | TAM proxy | Revenue model | Phase | Dependency | | Primitive | TAM proxy | Revenue model | Phase | Dependency |
|-----------|-----------|---------------|-------|------------| |----------+-----------+--------------+-------+------------|
| Smart contracts (general) | $20B/yr (Ethereum) | Transaction fees | End State | Installed base | | Smart contracts (general) | $20B/yr (Ethereum) | Transaction fees | End State | Installed base |
| Contract templates | New market | Per-template sale | Zero | Gate rule SDK | | Contract templates | New market | Per-template sale | Zero | Gate rule SDK |
| Governance (multi-instance) | New market | Annual license | Zero | Stoa premium | | Governance (multi-instance) | New market | Annual license | Zero | Stoa premium |
@@ -122,11 +116,9 @@ When two Agora instances disagree on a contract execution, submit to a verified
| Namespace sub-leasing | Small | Commission | Zero | Username registry | | Namespace sub-leasing | Small | Commission | Zero | Username registry |
| Dispute resolution | New market | Per-resolution | End State | Installed base | | Dispute resolution | New market | Per-resolution | End State | Installed base |
**Key insight:** Contract templates, attestation, and multi-instance governance can ship in Phase Zero. They require only the existing Agora infrastructure (DIDs, PDS, gate rules) — no full Lisp Machine needed. These seed the contract economy before the smart contract platform ships. Key insight: Contract templates, attestation, and multi-instance governance can ship in Phase Zero. They require only the existing Agora infrastructure (DIDs, PDS, gate rules) — no full Lisp Machine needed. These seed the contract economy before the smart contract platform ships.
--- * Relationship to Compute Marketplace
## Relationship to Compute Marketplace
The compute marketplace and the contract platform reinforce each other: The compute marketplace and the contract platform reinforce each other:
@@ -137,9 +129,7 @@ The compute marketplace and the contract platform reinforce each other:
The triad's network effects compound when all three layers (compute, contracts, attestation) are active simultaneously. Any one layer without the others is weaker — together they create the [[file:verification-monopoly.org][verification monopoly]]. The triad's network effects compound when all three layers (compute, contracts, attestation) are active simultaneously. Any one layer without the others is weaker — together they create the [[file:verification-monopoly.org][verification monopoly]].
--- * References
## References
- [[file:agora.org][Agora overview]] - [[file:agora.org][Agora overview]]
- [[file:agora-usernames.org][Premium username registry]] - [[file:agora-usernames.org][Premium username registry]]

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This page is the entry point for revenue generation thinking across all three triad components. Revenue splits cleanly across the two development phases defined in [[file:time-estimates.org][time estimates]]. Each component enables different revenue primitives. This page is the entry point for revenue generation thinking across all three triad components. Revenue splits cleanly across the two development phases defined in [[file:time-estimates.org][time estimates]]. Each component enables different revenue primitives.
--- * Revenue by Triad Component
## Revenue by Triad Component ** Logos (the mind) — Revenue streams
### Logos (the mind) — Revenue streams
Existing coverage ([[file:verification-appliance.org]], [[file:domain-gate-packages.org]], [[file:evaluation-harness.org]], [[file:compute-marketplace.org]], [[file:verified-skill-marketplace.org]]): Existing coverage ([[file:verification-appliance.org]], [[file:domain-gate-packages.org]], [[file:evaluation-harness.org]], [[file:compute-marketplace.org]], [[file:verified-skill-marketplace.org]]):
| Stream | Phase | Description | | Stream | Phase | Description |
|--------|-------|-------------| |--------+-------+-------------|
| Verification appliance | Zero | FPGA/Tenstorrent pre-loaded with Passepartout + gate rules | | Verification appliance | Zero | FPGA/Tenstorrent pre-loaded with Passepartout + gate rules |
| Domain gate packages | Zero | SaaS subscriptions per compliance domain | | Domain gate packages | Zero | SaaS subscriptions per compliance domain |
| Evaluation harness | Zero | Certification-as-a-service, regression suite access | | Evaluation harness | Zero | Certification-as-a-service, regression suite access |
| Compute marketplace | Both | Verified symbolic engine cycles (see Agora) | | Compute marketplace | Both | Verified symbolic engine cycles (see Agora) |
| Verified skill marketplace | End State | Commission on third-party gate rules | | Verified skill marketplace | End State | Commission on third-party gate rules |
**Unexplored Logos streams:** *** Unexplored Logos streams
| Stream | Phase | Rationale | | Stream | Phase | Rationale |
|--------|-------|-----------| |--------+-------+-----------|
| **Verified API gateway** | Zero | Drop-in proxy for LLM calls. Passepartout verifies inputs, outputs, and provenance. Enterprise customers get a verifiable audit trail for every API call — what was sent, what came back, what gates were applied. Near-term product: "run your OpenAI/Anthropic calls through Passepartout and get proof." | | Verified API gateway | Zero | Drop-in proxy for LLM calls. Passepartout verifies inputs, outputs, and provenance. Enterprise customers get a verifiable audit trail for every API call. Near-term product: run your OpenAI/Anthropic calls through Passepartout and get proof. |
| **Agent-as-a-service** | Zero | Cloud-hosted Passepartout instances. Pay-per-verification or monthly subscription. The compute marketplace for individuals who don't self-host. | | Agent-as-a-service | Zero | Cloud-hosted Passepartout instances. Pay-per-verification or monthly subscription. The compute marketplace for individuals who don't self-host. |
| **Continuous compliance monitoring** | Zero | Watch a deployment, continuously verify it against regulatory gate rules, alert on drift. Annual contract per monitored system. The evaluation harness as a product. | | Continuous compliance monitoring | Zero | Watch a deployment, continuously verify it against regulatory gate rules, alert on drift. Annual contract per monitored system. The evaluation harness as a product. |
| **Gate rule SDK licensing** | Both | Commercial license for the gate rule development toolkit. Free for open-source rules, paid for proprietary enterprise rule development. | | Gate rule SDK licensing | Both | Commercial license for the gate rule development toolkit. Free for open-source rules, paid for proprietary enterprise rule development. |
| **Migration pipeline** | Zero | Convert existing codebases to verified Lisp. Automated SaaS (point at a repo, get back a verified version). Per-enterprise: $50K-$500K for full migration. | | Migration pipeline | Zero | Convert existing codebases to verified Lisp. Automated SaaS (point at a repo, get back a verified version). Per-enterprise: $50K-$500K for full migration. |
| **Forensics / incident response** | Zero | Merkle memory provides tamper-proof audit. Post-incident: produce an irrefutable chain of what happened, who authorized it, what gates were triggered. Service offering. | | Forensics / incident response | Zero | Merkle memory provides tamper-proof audit. Post-incident: produce an irrefutable chain of what happened, who authorized it, what gates were triggered. Service offering. |
| **Proof repository marketplace** | End State | Pre-verified proof libraries per domain (crypto, medical device, finance). Access to accumulated proof strategies from thousands of runs. | | Proof repository marketplace | End State | Pre-verified proof libraries per domain (crypto, medical device, finance). Access to accumulated proof strategies from thousands of runs. |
| **Training & certification** | Zero | Certified Gate Rule Developer program. Developer camps, certification exams, continuing education. The Red Hat / AWS training model. | | Training & certification | Zero | Certified Gate Rule Developer program. Developer camps, certification exams, continuing education. The Red Hat / AWS training model. |
| **Enterprise support SLA** | Zero | Guaranteed verification pipeline uptime, priority bug fixes, custom gate rule development. Red Hat subscription model. | | Enterprise support SLA | Zero | Guaranteed verification pipeline uptime, priority bug fixes, custom gate rule development. Red Hat subscription model. |
**Verified API gateway is notable** because it requires zero buy-in to the triad vision. Any company using LLM APIs today can deploy Passepartout as a verification proxy and immediately get value (audit trail, gate compliance, prompt injection detection). It's a standalone product that seeds the ecosystem. /Verified API gateway/ is notable because it requires zero buy-in to the triad vision. Any company using LLM APIs today can deploy Passepartout as a verification proxy and immediately get value (audit trail, gate compliance, prompt injection detection). It's a standalone product that seeds the ecosystem.
--- ** Stoa (the body) — Revenue streams
### Stoa (the body) — Revenue streams This is the /least developed/ revenue arm. Existing docs essentially say people buy hardware and the lock-in compounds. There is a gap:
This is the **least developed** revenue arm. Existing docs essentially say "people buy hardware and the lock-in compounds." There's a gap:
Existing coverage: essentially none beyond hardware sales. Existing coverage: essentially none beyond hardware sales.
**Stoa revenue streams:**
| Stream | Phase | Rationale | | Stream | Phase | Rationale |
|--------|-------|-----------| |--------+-------+-----------|
| **Lisp Machine hardware** | End State | Tenstorrent/FPGA appliances. Hardware margins + recurring gate rules. | | Lisp Machine hardware | End State | Tenstorrent/FPGA appliances. Hardware margins + recurring gate rules. |
| **Stoa premium** | Both | Enterprise features: SSO, audit logging, compliance reports, team management, centralized policy enforcement. Annual seat license. | | Stoa premium | Both | Enterprise features: SSO, audit logging, compliance reports, team management, centralized policy enforcement. Annual seat license. |
| **Plugin & theme marketplace** | End State | Verified plugins for Stoa (editors, browsers, shells, tools). Commission on each sale. Developer ecosystem. App Store for the Lisp Machine. | | Plugin and theme marketplace | End State | Verified plugins for Stoa (editors, browsers, shells, tools). Commission on each sale. Developer ecosystem. App Store for the Lisp Machine. |
| **Commercial Lisp image distribution** | Both | Verified, signed, compatibility-guaranteed Stoa images. Free self-build (AGPL), paid for certified builds with SLAs. | | Commercial Lisp image distribution | Both | Verified, signed, compatibility-guaranteed Stoa images. Free self-build (AGPL), paid for certified builds with SLAs. |
| **Enterprise Stoa deployment** | Zero | Tools for deploying Stoa across an organization: fleet management, unified gate policy, compliance dashboard. Annual license. | | Enterprise Stoa deployment | Zero | Tools for deploying Stoa across an organization: fleet management, unified gate policy, compliance dashboard. Annual license. |
| **Backup & archive service** | Both | Verified snapshots of Stoa Lisp images. Tamper-proof archival of development environments. | | Backup and archive service | Both | Verified snapshots of Stoa Lisp images. Tamper-proof archival of development environments. |
| **Stoa extension SDK** | Both | Commercial license for developing proprietary Stoa extensions. Tools, documentation, support. | | Stoa extension SDK | Both | Commercial license for developing proprietary Stoa extensions. Tools, documentation, support. |
**Key insight:** Stoa doesn't need the full Lisp Machine to generate revenue. Stoa premium (SSO, audit, compliance reports) and enterprise deployment tools ship on Linux, use the existing Stoa terminal UI, and sell to the same enterprise buyer who buys gate packages. Compliance teams want verified environments — Stoa premium delivers that without waiting for custom hardware. Key insight: Stoa does not need the full Lisp Machine to generate revenue. Stoa premium (SSO, audit, compliance reports) and enterprise deployment tools ship on Linux, use the existing Stoa terminal UI, and sell to the same enterprise buyer who buys gate packages. Compliance teams want verified environments — Stoa premium delivers that without waiting for custom hardware.
--- ** Agora (the society) — Revenue streams
### Agora (the society) — Revenue streams
Existing coverage ([[file:agora-usernames.org]], [[file:pds-as-a-service.org]], [[file:compute-marketplace.org]]): Existing coverage ([[file:agora-usernames.org]], [[file:pds-as-a-service.org]], [[file:compute-marketplace.org]]):
| Stream | Phase | Description | | Stream | Phase | Description |
|--------|-------|-------------| |--------+-------+-------------|
| Premium username registry | Zero | $5-50/yr per handle, auction for high-value names | | Premium username registry | Zero | $5-50/yr per handle, auction for high-value names |
| PDS as a service | Both | $10-1000/mo per hosted personal data store | | PDS as a service | Both | $10-1000/mo per hosted personal data store |
| Compute marketplace | Both | Commission on verified compute transactions | | Compute marketplace | Both | Commission on verified compute transactions |
**Unexplored Agora streams — contracts:** The most fertile ground is contracts. DIDs provide identity, DIDComm provides communication, PDS provides state, gate rules encode terms, ACL2 verifies execution, and the symbolic engine runs deterministically. This is a full smart contract platform, strictly stronger than existing ones because ACL2 verifies the /rules themselves/, not just execution trace validity.
The most fertile ground. DIDs provide identity, DIDComm provides communication, PDS provides persistent state, gate rules encode contract terms, ACL2 verifies execution, and the symbolic engine runs deterministically. This is a full smart contract platform, strictly stronger than existing ones because ACL2 verifies the *rules themselves*, not just execution trace validity. *** Unexplored Agora streams — contracts
#### Contract-based revenue streams
| Stream | Phase | Rationale | | Stream | Phase | Rationale |
|--------|-------|-----------| |--------+-------+-----------|
| **Verified smart contract platform** | End State | Deploy contracts on Agora with ACL2-verified correctness. Every contract call produces a machine-checkable proof. Revenue: transaction fees per contract execution + deployment fee per verified contract. | | Verified smart contract platform | End State | Deploy contracts on Agora with ACL2-verified correctness. Every contract call produces a machine-checkable proof. Revenue: transaction fees per execution + deployment fee per verified contract. |
| **Contract template marketplace** | Zero | Pre-verified contract templates for common use cases (escrow, DAO constitution, service-level agreement, data licensing). Sell templates or take commission on template-based contracts. | | Contract template marketplace | Zero | Pre-verified contract templates for common use cases (escrow, DAO constitution, SLA, data licensing). Sell templates or take commission on template-based contracts. |
| **Dispute resolution service** | End State | When two Agora instances disagree on contract execution, submit to a verified arbitrator. The arbitrator runs the contract in their own Passepartout and the proof resolves the dispute unambiguously. Fee per resolution. | | Dispute resolution service | End State | When two Agora instances disagree on contract execution, submit to a verified arbitrator. Fee per resolution. |
| **Attestation marketplace** | Zero | DIDs + verified actions = verifiable reputation. Attest that a DID meets certain criteria (certification, identity verification, proof track record). Revenue: attestation fees, verification fees. | | Attestation marketplace | Zero | DIDs + verified actions = verifiable reputation. Attest that a DID meets certain criteria. Revenue: attestation fees, verification fees. |
| **Multi-instance governance** | Zero | Organizations running multiple triad instances need: cross-instance policy enforcement, unified compliance reporting, federated identity. Enterprise tier, annual license. | | Multi-instance governance | Zero | Cross-instance policy enforcement, unified compliance reporting, federated identity. Enterprise tier, annual license. |
| **Liquid democracy infrastructure** | End State | DAO governance as a service on Agora. Verified proxy voting, governance contracts, treasury management. Per-vote transaction fee + governance contract setup. | | Liquid democracy infrastructure | End State | DAO governance as a service. Verified proxy voting, governance contracts. Per-vote transaction fee. |
| **Insurance marketplace** | End State | Reputable providers sell proof insurance — they guarantee their verification results. Premiums, reinsurance pool fees, actuarial gate rules. The same economics as the compute marketplace applied to risk. | | Insurance marketplace | End State | Reputable providers sell proof insurance. Premiums, reinsurance pool fees, actuarial gate rules. |
| **Namespace sub-leasing** | Both | Premium handles can be sub-leased between DIDs. Early player takes a commission on each lease transaction. ENS-style. | | Namespace sub-leasing | Both | Premium handles sub-leased between DIDs. Commission on each lease. |
| **Data sharing contracts** | Both | PDS-to-PDS data sharing agreements encoded as gate rules. Pay-per-access, subscription, or one-time license. Commission on each data transaction. | | Data sharing contracts | Both | PDS-to-PDS data sharing agreements encoded as gate rules. Commission on each data transaction. |
**The contract platform is the kill application for Agora.** Ethereum proved demand for verifiable contracts at $20B+/yr in transaction fees. Agora's version is strictly better: ACL2 proves contract *correctness* (not just valid execution), gate rules encode real-world regulations directly, and the PDS provides persistent state without a global trie bottleneck. The only thing Ethereum has that Agora doesn't is liquidity — but that's a network effect problem, not a technical one. The contract platform is the kill application for Agora. Ethereum proved demand for verifiable contracts at $20B+/yr in transaction fees. Agora's version is strictly better: ACL2 proves contract /correctness/ (not just valid execution), gate rules encode real-world regulations directly, and the PDS provides persistent state without a global trie bottleneck.
--- See [[file:agora-contracts.org][Agora contracts]] for the full analysis.
## Revenue by Development Phase * Revenue by Development Phase
### Phase Zero streams (ships with MVP, 1-3 months, Linux-hosted) ** Phase Zero streams (ships with MVP, 1-3 months, Linux-hosted)
| Stream | Component | TAM | Buyer | Revenue type | | Stream | Component | TAM | Buyer | Revenue type |
|--------|-----------|-----|-------|-------------| |--------+----------+-----+-------+--------------|
| Domain gate packages | Logos | Large | CISO/Compliance | SaaS | | Domain gate packages | Logos | Large | CISO/Compliance | SaaS |
| Verification appliance | Logos | Medium | Enterprise infra | Hardware + subs | | Verification appliance | Logos | Medium | Enterprise infra | Hardware + subs |
| Evaluation harness | Logos | Medium | Compliance | Certification | | Evaluation harness | Logos | Medium | Compliance | Certification |
@@ -113,7 +103,7 @@ The most fertile ground. DIDs provide identity, DIDComm provides communication,
| Gate rule SDK (commercial) | Logos | Small | Developers | License | | Gate rule SDK (commercial) | Logos | Small | Developers | License |
| Stoa premium (enterprise) | Stoa | Medium | Enterprise | Annual seat | | Stoa premium (enterprise) | Stoa | Medium | Enterprise | Annual seat |
| Enterprise Stoa deployment | Stoa | Medium | Enterprise Ops | Annual | | Enterprise Stoa deployment | Stoa | Medium | Enterprise Ops | Annual |
| Training & certification | All | Small | Developers | Per-seat | | Training and certification | All | Small | Developers | Per-seat |
| Forensics / incident response | Logos | Small | Enterprise | Per-incident | | Forensics / incident response | Logos | Small | Enterprise | Per-incident |
| Contract templates | Agora | Medium | Developers | Per-template | | Contract templates | Agora | Medium | Developers | Per-template |
| Attestation marketplace | Agora | Medium | Enterprise | Per-attestation | | Attestation marketplace | Agora | Medium | Enterprise | Per-attestation |
@@ -121,12 +111,12 @@ The most fertile ground. DIDs provide identity, DIDComm provides communication,
| Multi-instance governance | Agora | Large | Enterprise | Annual | | Multi-instance governance | Agora | Large | Enterprise | Annual |
| Namespace sub-leasing | Agora | Small | Individuals | Per-transaction | | Namespace sub-leasing | Agora | Small | Individuals | Per-transaction |
**Phase Zero target: $2M-$12M/year** (from [[file:investment-thesis.org][investment thesis]]), with upside from verified API gateway and compliance monitoring pushing toward $15-20M. Phase Zero target: $2M-$12M/year (from [[file:investment-thesis.org][investment thesis]]), with upside from verified API gateway and compliance monitoring pushing toward $15-20M.
### End State streams (full Lisp Machine, 2-5 years) ** End State streams (full Lisp Machine, 2-5 years)
| Stream | Component | TAM | Revenue type | | Stream | Component | TAM | Revenue type |
|--------|-----------|-----|-------------| |--------+----------+-----+--------------|
| Verification monopoly | Logos/All | $1B+ | Certification | | Verification monopoly | Logos/All | $1B+ | Certification |
| Infrastructure lock-in | All | $100B+ | Rent extraction | | Infrastructure lock-in | All | $100B+ | Rent extraction |
| Compute marketplace | Agora | Venture-scale | Transaction fees | | Compute marketplace | Agora | Venture-scale | Transaction fees |
@@ -140,37 +130,31 @@ The most fertile ground. DIDs provide identity, DIDComm provides communication,
| Proof repository marketplace | Logos | Medium | Subscription | | Proof repository marketplace | Logos | Medium | Subscription |
| Verified skill marketplace | Logos | Medium | Commission | | Verified skill marketplace | Logos | Medium | Commission |
--- * Orders-of-Magnitude Risk Map
## Orders-of-Magnitude Risk Map
Using the [[file:orders-of-magnitude-time.org][orders-of-magnitude framework]], each revenue stream lives at a different scale: Using the [[file:orders-of-magnitude-time.org][orders-of-magnitude framework]], each revenue stream lives at a different scale:
| Scale | Representative streams | Failure mode | | Scale | Representative streams | Failure mode |
|-------|----------------------|--------------| |-------+-----------------------+--------------|
| **Weeks** | Gate packages, appliance pre-orders, training | Wrong pricing, too early | | Weeks | Gate packages, appliance pre-orders, training | Wrong pricing, too early |
| **Months** | Compliance monitoring, API gateway, PDS, Stoa premium | Churn, incumbents respond | | Months | Compliance monitoring, API gateway, PDS, Stoa premium | Churn, incumbents respond |
| **Years** | Compute marketplace, contract platform, monopoly | Competition catches up | | Years | Compute marketplace, contract platform, monopoly | Competition catches up |
| **Generations** | Infrastructure lock-in, insurance marketplace | Technology shift | | Generations | Infrastructure lock-in, insurance marketplace | Technology shift |
The phase-zero streams are all direct enterprise sales with short cycles and clear buyers. The end-state streams require installed base — you can't have a verification monopoly without deployed triads. The phase-zero streams are all direct enterprise sales with short cycles and clear buyers. The end-state streams require installed base — you cannot have a verification monopoly without deployed triads.
--- * Risk-Ordered Investment Priority
## Risk-Ordered Investment Priority 1. Gate rule packages — Lowest risk. Clear buyer, existing budget, no dependency on full stack. Ship first.
2. Verified API gateway — Standalone product, anyone using LLMs is a customer. Zero triad buy-in required.
3. Verification appliance — Customers pay for hardware + ongoing subs. Verifiable revenue, long contracts.
4. Continuous compliance monitoring — Annual contracts, compliance teams budget for it.
5. Agora usernames — Trivial to implement, tests the namespace concept.
6. Contract templates + attestation — Seeds the Agora economy without needing full smart contracts.
7. Compute marketplace — High risk/reward. Requires critical mass. Phase Zero bootstraps with cloud arbitrage.
8. Verification monopoly — Thesis-level bet. Invest when installed base justifies it.
1. **Gate rule packages** — Lowest risk. Clear buyer, existing budget, no dependency on full stack. Ship first. * Detailed References
2. **Verified API gateway** — Standalone product, anyone using LLMs is a customer. Zero triad buy-in required.
3. **Verification appliance** — Customers pay for hardware + ongoing subs. Verifiable revenue, long contracts.
4. **Continuous compliance monitoring** — Annual contracts, compliance teams budget for it.
5. **Agora usernames** — Trivial to implement, tests the namespace concept.
6. **Contract templates + attestation** — Seeds the Agora economy without needing full smart contracts.
7. **Compute marketplace** — High risk/reward. Requires critical mass. Phase Zero bootstraps with cloud arbitrage.
8. **Verification monopoly** — Thesis-level bet. Invest when installed base justifies it.
---
## Detailed References
- [[file:passepartout-economics.org][Passepartout economics (full thesis)]] — the unified economics document - [[file:passepartout-economics.org][Passepartout economics (full thesis)]] — the unified economics document
- [[file:investment-thesis.org][Investment thesis]] — three revenue horizons, $2M to $1B+ - [[file:investment-thesis.org][Investment thesis]] — three revenue horizons, $2M to $1B+