:PROPERTIES:
:ID:       5961e469-53a3-5f3c-ab72-3c83ef91963f
:END:
#+title: Investment Thesis
#+filetags: :passepartout:economics:investment:thesis:

The early player benefits from every other instance of the triad. Every deployed instance feeds edge cases into the regression suite, grows the compute marketplace, and validates the hardware designs. Network effects are positive sum.

Three revenue horizons:

- **Low-hanging fruit (year one, $2M-$12M):** verification appliances, domain gate rule subscriptions, evaluation harness certification, migration services
- **Medium-term (1-3 years, $10M-$50M):** compute marketplace, Relay Network, Lisp Machine hardware; premium usernames ($10M/yr), PDS hosting ($18M/yr)
- **Big money (3-10 years, $100M-$1B+):** verification monopoly (UL certification for AI), infrastructure lock-in, planetary compute marketplace

The switching costs compound. The network effects are positive sum. The market is nearly a trillion dollars.

The defensible entity is "the organization that best understands how to adapt Passepartout to your domain" — not "the organization that owns Passepartout."

See also: [[file:verification-appliance.org][Verification appliance]], [[file:domain-gate-packages.org][Domain gate packages]], [[file:evaluation-harness.org][Evaluation harness]], [[file:agora-usernames.org][Agora usernames]], [[file:pds-as-a-service.org][PDS as a service]], [[file:verification-monopoly.org][Verification monopoly]], [[file:infrastructure-lock-in.org][Infrastructure lock-in]], [[file:moats.org][Moats]]