:PROPERTIES:
:ID:       5961e469-53a3-5f3c-ab72-3c83ef91963f
:END:
#+title: Investment Thesis
#+filetags: :passepartout:economics:investment:thesis:

The early player benefits from every other instance of the triad. Every deployed instance feeds edge cases into the [[file:evaluation-harness.org][regression suite]], grows the [[file:compute-marketplace.org][compute marketplace]], and validates the hardware designs. Network effects are positive sum.

Three revenue horizons:

- **Low-hanging fruit (year one, $2M-$12M):** [[file:verification-appliance.org][verification appliances]], [[file:domain-gate-packages.org][domain gate rule subscriptions]], [[file:evaluation-harness.org][evaluation harness certification]], migration services
- **Medium-term (1-3 years, $10M-$50M):** [[file:compute-marketplace.org][compute marketplace]], Relay Network, Lisp Machine hardware; [[file:agora-usernames.org][premium usernames]] ($10M/yr), [[file:pds-as-a-service.org][PDS hosting]] ($18M/yr)
- **Big money (3-10 years, $100M-$1B+):** [[file:verification-monopoly.org][verification monopoly]] (UL certification for AI), [[file:infrastructure-lock-in.org][infrastructure lock-in]], planetary compute marketplace

The switching costs compound. The [[file:moats.org][network effects]] are positive sum. The market is nearly a trillion dollars.

The defensible entity is "the organization that best understands how to adapt Passepartout to your domain" — not "the organization that owns Passepartout."