:PROPERTIES:
:ID:       dc2e4f22-1c4c-5d4a-a151-f96e5d3b0d70
:END:
#+title: Development Velocity and Timeline Estimates
#+filetags: :passepartout:economics:development:timeline:velocity:

At the observed velocity (v0.4.0 to v0.7.2 in a single session), the agent writes code and the symbolic engine verifies it at a cycle measured in minutes. The bottleneck is not coding speed — it is LLM API latency, ACL2 verification time, and human review of the 5% of edge cases Screamer flags.

**To v1.0.0 (neurosymbolic maturity, ~4,500 lines):** ~80 cycles, 3-5 weeks, ~2-3 hours of human review.

**To [[file:self-driving-lisp-machine.org][self-driving Lisp Machine]] (Logos + Stoa hardware, +~6,000 lines):** ~60 cycles, 2-4 weeks. The microcode must be loaded onto physical hardware and benchmarked, adding seconds per cycle.

**Full Stoa (editor, browser, shell, Qt integration, ~3,500 lines):** ~30 cycles, 2-3 weeks.

**Total from today to full Logos + Stoa + Agora triad:** 3-6 months. Most of that time is spent on design decisions and protocol specification, not on code.

The system writes the code. The human makes architectural decisions and reviews the 5% ambiguous rules. This timeline assumes a rapid [[file:sufficiency-flip.org][sufficiency flip]] for each domain. See [[file:investment-thesis.org][Investment thesis]] for the business case that justifies this approach.