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- Split competitive-analysis-2026-05.org → TOC + 9 competitor files in ideas/competitors/. Dropped date from filename. All competitor UUIDs generated, TOC keeps original UUID for backlink continuity. - Deleted passepartout-economics.org archive (replaced by 27-node KB). - Inlined 5 'See also' blocks into natural prose (compliance-index, first-mover-window, revenue-table, orders-of-magnitude-time, native-org-knowledge-base). - Linked 7 orphan compliance pages back to compliance index + finished truncated sentences. - Linked all 14 Agora requirement docs from topic-relevant pages (identity→lisp-machine-security, infrastructure→compute-marketplace, social-space→growth-strategy, exchange→agora-contracts, etc.). - Linked ai-industry-impact from investment-thesis, sufficiency-flip, verification-appliance, effects-growth-flywheel (up from 1 to 10+ pages). - Fixed CREATED timestamps to use git commit dates instead of today. - Made all links absolute from root (no port inheritance). - Removed stale agora/docs/ duplicate content.
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First-Mover Window Analysis
First-Mover Window Analysis
The first-mover window is the time in which a new compliance tool can establish dominance before incumbents respond or the market settles on a standard approach.
| Window | Frameworks | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Critical (<12 months) | EU AI Act (Aug 2026 effective), NIS2 (Oct 2025 deadline), DORA (Jan 2025 — already in effect) | Regulation is active or imminent. Buyers are desperate. No established vendor. |
| Wide (12-36 months) | DPDP Act 2023 (rules drafting), India privacy; Privacy Act Review (Australia); Quebec Law 25; CRA phased enforcement | Regulation not yet fully enforced. Rules being written. Market forming. |
| Mature (commodity) | GDPR (2018), SOX (2002), HIPAA (1996), GLBA (1999), Basel III (2010), FATF 40 Recs | Market has established vendors. First-mover advantage requires displacing incumbents via superior architecture. |
| Latent (undiscovered) | OECD AI Principles, UN/CEFACT, World Bank ESF, IFC PS | Compliance exists but is document-based or consultant-delivered. No software market has formed. The first gate package creates the category. |
These windows define which frameworks are worth building a gate package for first. The compliance index maps each to a verification appliance gate package, and the revenue table sizes the market. The verification monopoly dynamics determine which window to enter first.