Atoms, Bits and Cells: How to Hedge your Future in the Coming Decades
Atoms, Bits and Cells: Personal Strategies for the Coming Decades

Introduction
# The problem
## The Church of Progress
## In parabola, the past is no indictor of the future
## If not business as usual, then what?
### Drexler vs Holmgren
### Up scenario
### Down scenario

# Atoms
# Bits
# Cells

# Beyond Personal: Collective

Two singularities, disruption anyway


Decouple livelihood and economy, either by bitcoin or physical resilience
Changes in quantity become changes in quality after a few orders of magnitude
Action follows awareness only in smaller numbers, and precedes it in larger numbers
Do not fix with speech what you can fix with privacy
Do not fix on a large scale what you can fix on a small scale
Minimalism does not exist. Frugality does
Shorten supply chains
All exponential growth is unsustainable. Progressives worry about exponential carbon growth. Conservatives worry about exponential debt growth.


Holmgren's Future Scenarios as the best framework for understanding the 21st century
Climate Change is real. 2 degrees, 350-400ppm, interational agreements are not effective measures, were thought up only because they seem reasonable in policy circles
ERoEI is the most important factor you have probably never heard of
We are on a Brown Tech scenario
Holmgren's update, including monetary policy
Bitcoin is wasteful, compared to what?
If you are for degrowth, what is better than a disinflationary monetary policy?
Bitcoin can reign in Facist trends in a Brown Tech scenario by being censorship resistant
Forget wealth distribution, global economic contraction is underway and is not necessarily (or likely, due to Bitcoin) linked to wealth distrubution
Renweables are not carbon negative throughout their lifetime
Depopulation, (proactive) rewilding are positive dynamics
Sustainability = Technology * Economy. Sustainability needs to be under 1.0 (perhaps way under to make up for runaway climate change, 0.7?)
A second great depression is the best hope for the planet, as Holmgren puts it
The nested scenario is evident in Bitcoin
Credit crunch kills expensive fossil fuels like tar sands and shale oil
What do demographic predicitions look like in the coming 100 years with longevity technologies taken into account?

Relative importance of atoms categories at each time frame
