#+TITLE: Towards a theory of two-step push factors :academia:CSLA:@personal:
#+FILETAGS: :atomic:note:

* Towards a theory of two-step push factors :academia:CSLA:@personal:
:PROPERTIES:
:CREATED: 1ec697a7-c5d4-4031-9bfb-ea2c33cc287d
:SOURCE: /home/user/memex/daily/2016-08-11.org
:END:


:CREATED: [2016-08-11 Thu 19:15]
:MODIFIED: [2016-08-13 Sat 07:36]
:IMPORTED: [2023-02-08 Wed 19:22]

Context: Emigration from tropic and sub-tropic regions South of the Mediterranean to Europe has been accelerating for decades. This accelerated emigration is often related to breakdown of social and political systems in countries of origin. A coinciding global change is accelerating desertification in tropic and sub-tropic areas, resulting in loss of arable soil (water and carbon sinks).

Gap: No or weak connection has been made between emigration and desertification.

Significance: Current policy tackling emigration disconnected from deeper causing factors is less likely to yield positive results.

Thesis: There is a positive corelation between accelerating desertification (another angle is the common climate change CO2 emissions), and accelerated emigration from decertifying areas.

Method/Framework: This will be done by comparing a primary desertification indicator (possibly International Panel on Climate Change indicators over two decades) with International Organisation of Migration data series over the same period.

Plan

Section 1: Review accelerated emigration attributed to political instability and economic problems

Section 2: Define desertification, demonstrate its acceleration

Section 3: Compare data and demonstrate corelation

Limitations

space:

time: 2015-1995 give or take a few

Risks

it has been done before, and I am just ignorant

it needs me more time than I have

it is beyond my skill

mapping emigration data (usually by state) to climate data (usually by eco-region)

Potential Sources

IOM data sets

Possibly IPCC emissions data. Still needs to find useful desertification indicator

The world now is a place where there is greater liberty of movement for capital and goods, and a lesser liberty of movement for information and people. An increasingly near future where the combined effect of climate change and end of cheap energy mean the reverse: reduced movement of goods for the benefit of information, and reduced movement of capital for the benefit of people.


* Backlinks
- Source: [[file:/home/user/memex/daily/2016-08-11.org][2016-08-11.org]]
