CONTENTS

Acknowledgements							V

1. Introduction: Energy and History					1
Energetic and Ecological Foundations of Human History			5
The Next Energy Transition						8

2. Energy Futures							13
Four Energy Futures							13
Views of the Future							13

3. Climate Change and Peak Oil						34
Climate Change 								34
Energy Reserves and Production Peaks					38
Collapsing Oil Exports							43
Associated Issues							50

4. Descent Scenarios							56
Scenario Planning							56
Interaction of Peak Oil and Climate Change				57
The Four Energy-Descent and Climate-Change Scenarios			60
Scenarios Summary							89

5. Interpreting the Scenarios						90
Global and Local Perspectives						90
Cuba: Brown Tech, Green Tech, or Earth Steward				92
Depressing and Positive Scenarios					94
Different Scenarios in Different Places					96
Stepped Energy-Descent Pathways Linking the Scenarios			97
Nested Scenarios							101
Relevance of Mainstream Ideas of Sustainability to Energy Descent	104
Relevance of Environmental Principles					107
Meta-Scenarios of Permaculture						108

6. Conclusion								113
Notes									117