3063f8fdf7
Replaced every bottom-of-section 'See also:' block with inline Org-mode file: links at the first natural mention in body text. All 29 files across the economics directory now use wiki-style inline cross-references rather than standalone reference blocks.
18 lines
1.3 KiB
Org Mode
18 lines
1.3 KiB
Org Mode
:PROPERTIES:
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:ID: dc2e4f22-1c4c-5d4a-a151-f96e5d3b0d70
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:END:
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#+title: Development Velocity and Timeline Estimates
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#+filetags: :passepartout:economics:development:timeline:velocity:
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At the observed velocity (v0.4.0 to v0.7.2 in a single session), the agent writes code and the symbolic engine verifies it at a cycle measured in minutes. The bottleneck is not coding speed — it is LLM API latency, ACL2 verification time, and human review of the 5% of edge cases Screamer flags.
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**To v1.0.0 (neurosymbolic maturity, ~4,500 lines):** ~80 cycles, 3-5 weeks, ~2-3 hours of human review.
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**To [[file:self-driving-lisp-machine.org][self-driving Lisp Machine]] (Logos + Stoa hardware, +~6,000 lines):** ~60 cycles, 2-4 weeks. The microcode must be loaded onto physical hardware and benchmarked, adding seconds per cycle.
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**Full Stoa (editor, browser, shell, Qt integration, ~3,500 lines):** ~30 cycles, 2-3 weeks.
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**Total from today to full Logos + Stoa + Agora triad:** 3-6 months. Most of that time is spent on design decisions and protocol specification, not on code.
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The system writes the code. The human makes architectural decisions and reviews the 5% ambiguous rules. This timeline assumes a rapid [[file:sufficiency-flip.org][sufficiency flip]] for each domain. See [[file:investment-thesis.org][Investment thesis]] for the business case that justifies this approach.
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