0a8e77e949
- Moved everything from ideas/passepartout/ to projects/passepartout/ - Moved legal structures to projects/flags/ - Created missing _index.org files for all subdirectories - Stripped redundant passepartout- prefix from filenames - Rewrote root _index.org as generalized brain index (projects + concepts) - Updated Hugo nav to Projects/Concepts - Updated build script section descriptions - Deleted stale ideas/passepartout-economics.md orphan
29 lines
2.5 KiB
Org Mode
29 lines
2.5 KiB
Org Mode
:PROPERTIES:
|
|
:ID: 558154ea-e63a-4c45-998c-26ce8588585b
|
|
:ID: auto-first-mover-window
|
|
:CREATED: [2026-05-23 Sat]
|
|
:END:
|
|
#+title: First-Mover Window Analysis
|
|
#+filetags: :passepartout:compliance:strategy:first-mover:
|
|
|
|
* First-Mover Window Analysis
|
|
|
|
The first-mover window is the time in which a new compliance tool can establish
|
|
dominance before incumbents respond or the market settles on a standard approach.
|
|
|
|
| Window | Frameworks | Rationale |
|
|
|--------|-----------|-----------|
|
|
| **Critical (<12 months)** | [[id:06fcdb02-2643-4f9d-ab41-e711a99cc390][EU AI Act]] (Aug 2026 effective), [[id:748db16a-1382-4e5e-8812-a5d57a8de131][NIS2]] (Oct 2025 deadline), [[id:717ef2df-2a80-4362-b23a-5e7e12554251][DORA]] (Jan 2025 — already in effect) | Regulation is active or imminent. Buyers are desperate. No established vendor. |
|
|
| **Wide (12-36 months)** | [[id:fed19a24-ad81-4837-a12b-dafbd3ec110a][DPDP Act]] 2023 (rules drafting), India privacy; Privacy Act Review (Australia); [[id:f6a0c00e-e922-44af-99ce-6412c4b73745][Quebec Law 25]]; [[id:ce81fefc-b7a8-4be5-912f-55fd30970b6e][CRA]] phased enforcement | Regulation not yet fully enforced. Rules being written. Market forming. |
|
|
| **Mature (commodity)** | [[id:513d5996-4ac7-4567-a992-18fc01599104][GDPR]] (2018), [[id:c9830152-0160-4bdc-ab03-6f308ad43536][SOX]] (2002), [[id:84fb5f8f-0527-4df0-b6b6-dbf3bcff8a7f][HIPAA]] (1996), [[id:4a2bc62b-3f21-4212-9cd9-f9add8fc0be1][GLBA]] (1999), [[id:4eef0993-6671-41cf-ba20-d1443a3ec49d][Basel III]] (2010), [[id:03ebdb80-a9af-4e76-a443-8556424996ed][FATF]] 40 Recs | Market has established vendors. First-mover advantage requires displacing incumbents via superior architecture. |
|
|
| **Latent (undiscovered)** | [[id:022109ad-f031-44c4-8ea0-0b3c9402ca90][OECD]] AI Principles, [[id:6a5884c8-e9b5-477e-bbf6-aa9ffd967739][UN/CEFACT]], [[id:177aad72-5626-444d-a2e4-af8e1263b125][World Bank ESF]], [[id:68c55deb-72bf-4b15-ac28-bcc792057543][IFC PS]] | Compliance exists but is document-based or consultant-delivered. No software market has formed. The first gate package creates the category. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
These windows define which frameworks are worth building a gate package for
|
|
first. The [[id:e4a7b3d2-1c9f-4b6e-8a2d-5f3c7e1b9a0c][compliance index]] maps each to a
|
|
[[id:84a537b4-4256-50c8-91f5-dd5b4538418f][verification appliance]] gate package, and the
|
|
[[id:81a815ee-bf2b-4365-9894-b814e4196850][revenue table]] sizes the market. The
|
|
[[id:827bc546-e887-5b7c-9b65-6392beaf0920][verification monopoly]] dynamics determine which window to enter
|
|
first.
|