Files
hermes-brain/ideas/time-estimates.org
Hermes 3f38e87f4f Remove versioned roadmap from Passepartout docs
All version numbers stripped from roadmap across all brain documents:
- passepartout-economics.org: v0.x.x version table → phase-name-only table,
  v1.0.0 → 'neurosymbolic maturity', versioned text references → capability
  descriptions. Retained phase names (Phase 0-7) and line estimates as they
  describe capabilities, not version milestones.
- competitive-analysis-2026-05.org: version references removed
- time-estimates.org: v0.4.0 → 'initial state', v1.0.0 → 'neurosymbolic maturity'
- native-org-knowledge-base.org: v0.8.0-v0.9.0 → capability-based target
2026-05-23 06:24:20 +00:00

1.4 KiB

Development Velocity and Timeline Estimates

At the observed velocity (initial TUI through to production readiness in a single session), the agent writes code and the symbolic engine verifies it at a cycle measured in minutes. The bottleneck is not coding speed — it is LLM API latency, ACL2 verification time, and human review of the 5% of edge cases Screamer flags.

To neurosymbolic maturity (~4,500 lines): ~80 cycles, 3-5 weeks, ~2-3 hours of human review.

To self-driving Lisp Machine (Logos + Stoa hardware, +~6,000 lines): ~60 cycles, 2-4 weeks. The microcode must be loaded onto physical hardware and benchmarked, adding seconds per cycle.

Full Stoa (editor, browser, shell, Qt integration, ~3,500 lines): ~30 cycles, 2-3 weeks.

Total from today to full Logos + Stoa + Agora triad: 3-6 months. Most of that time is spent on design decisions and protocol specification, not on code.

The system writes the code. The human makes architectural decisions and reviews the 5% ambiguous rules. This timeline assumes a rapid sufficiency flip for each domain. See Investment thesis for the business case that justifies this approach.