63 lines
5.5 KiB
Org Mode
63 lines
5.5 KiB
Org Mode
:PROPERTIES:
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:ID: dc2e4f22-1c4c-5d4a-a151-f96e5d3b0d70
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:CREATED: [2026-05-23 Sat]
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:END:
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#+title: Development Velocity and Timeline Estimates
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#+filetags: :passepartout:economics:development:timeline:velocity:orders-of-magnitude:
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The [[file:orders-of-magnitude-time.org][orders-of-magnitude time framework]] reveals that the original single-timeline estimate conflated two qualitatively different projects. The line counts are in plausible ranges for Lisp's density (~5-10× fewer lines than C++ for equivalent functionality), but the phases differ in their feedback regimes, constraints, and failure modes. The honest picture splits into two distinct phases.
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*Old estimate:* 14,000 lines total, 3-6 months to replace the full computing stack. This was wrong because it treated all phases as linear — microcode has hardware latency (seconds per cycle), GUI has user-testing latency (days per iteration), and the browser alone is a years-scale project if done natively. The numbers do not add linearly across orders of magnitude.
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*Corrected estimate:* Two-phase approach with a clear middleground destination.
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* Phase Zero — The MVP (Linux-hosted, ships real product)
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Run on Linux, use C libraries through CFFI, deliver value without replacing the OS. This is the [[file:sufficiency-flip.org][sufficiency flip]] applied to the verification layer only, not the whole stack.
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| Component | Lines | Method | Scale |
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|----------+-------+--------+-------|
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| Neurosymbolic core (ACL2 + Screamer + LLM bridge) | ~4,500 | Agent-generated Lisp, human-validated | Weeks — dense, well-bounded, proven approach |
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| Terminal-based [[file:stoa.org][Stoa]] (editor + REPL + shell) | ~2,000 | CL-charms / cl-tty | Weeks — TUI patterns established |
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| Gate rule SDK + marketplace | ~1,500 | ACL2 gate packages | Weeks — pure symbolic, well-specified |
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| CFFI wrappers (system, GPU, crypto, storage) | ~2,000 | Thin bindings | Days — mechanical translation |
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| [[file:verification-appliance.org][Verification appliance]] CLI + [[file:agora.org][Agora]] namespace | ~1,000 | API surface | Weeks |
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*Total MVP: ~11,000 lines. Timeline: 1-3 months. Human review: ~20 hours.*
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This ships. Users get verified code execution, gate rule packages, and a verified development environment. No new OS, no new browser, no Qt integration. Value proposition is proven with existing infrastructure.
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*Revenue model starts here:* domain gate packages, verification appliance, compute marketplace. The MVP is a product, not a demo.
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* Phase End State — Full Lisp Machine (cannibalize the stack)
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Replace Linux, replace C libraries, own the framebuffer, own the browser. This is the full [[file:self-driving-lisp-machine.org][self-driving Lisp Machine]] vision.
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| Phase-out target | Replacement | Lines | Scale | Risk |
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|-----------------+------------+-------+-------+------|
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| Linux kernel (scheduler, IPC, drivers) | Microcode on Tenstorrent | ~6,000 | Months — hardware-limited cycles | Verification delay; hardware bugs |
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| MMU / process isolation | GC + ACL2-verified single address space | ~2,000 | Weeks — architecture already defined | Legacy app compatibility |
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| Display server (X11/Wayland) | Lisp framebuffer compositor | ~4,000 | Months — visual debugging is slow | UX gaps at the edges |
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| Browser (WebKit embed) | WebKit via Lisp FFI with verified wrappers | ~3,000 | Months — sandboxing the embed | Web platform surface is unbounded |
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| Native browser | Full Lisp DOM + render engine | ~30,000+ | Years — browser engines are OS-scale | This is the hardest piece. Consider staying on WebKit |
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| Core libraries (libc, SSL, crypto, etc.) | Incremental verified replacements | ~10,000+ | Years — can chip away post-ship | Every replacement must match SOTA perf |
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| Qt / terminal / native UI toolkit | Stoa toolkit (verified compositor + widgets) | ~8,000 | Months–years | UX parity with modern toolkits is the highest risk |
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*Ballpark end state: 25,000-60,000 lines. Timeline: 2-5 years.*
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The range reflects uncertainty about the browser. If WebKit embed is sufficient (Phase Zero's terminal UX graduates to a managed WebView), the end state is closer to 25K. If you need a full native browser with verified DOM, ACL2-rendered layout, and a compositor that matches macOS fluidity — that is a years-scale project on its own.
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* Orders-of-Magnitude Risk Map
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| Decision | At stake | True scale | Mistake if treated as |
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|---------+---------+-----------+----------------------|
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| Does the verification marketplace work? | Company thesis | Months (Phase Zero) | Solved in days |
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| Can we ship without replacing Linux? | Time-to-market | Weeks to implement | Years of kernel work before product |
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| Is WebKit embed enough for Stoa? | 60% of total timeline | Months vs years | Native browser as default path |
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| Does the sufficiency flip cover each domain? | Revenue model | Weeks per domain | One-shot, all or nothing |
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| Can Lisp match SOTA browser UX? | Full vision | Generations (or never) | Engineering problem, not a research question |
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The most dangerous order-of-magnitude error: treating the end state as an engineering sprint. Replacing the browser engine is a years-scale project that has defeated every attempt (Servo, PhantomJS, etc.). If that is the destination, plan accordingly — or accept WebKit embed as the terminal destination and focus verification on the OS/compositor layer where it provides real security value.
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See [[file:investment-thesis.org][Investment thesis]] for the business case and [[file:cost-structure.org][Cost structure]] for the economics behind the verification-only-first approach.
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