9b2be10c77
Replace monolithic passepartout-economics.org with directory of org-roam style nodes, each with :ID: property and cross-references using [[id:uuid][title]] format. 27 nodes organized by theme: - Core: index, triad overview, agora, stoa - Revenue: verification appliance, domain gate packages, evaluation harness, skill marketplace, agora usernames, PDS service, compute marketplace - Strategy: investment thesis, moats, licensing, patents, AI industry impact - Analysis: lisp economics, sufficiency flip, time estimates, cost structure, gate rule encoding, upgrade lifecycle, biology parallels, symbolics comparison - Big money: verification monopoly, infrastructure lock-in Old file kept as archive with redirect links to new structure.
18 lines
1.6 KiB
Org Mode
18 lines
1.6 KiB
Org Mode
:PROPERTIES:
|
|
:ID: 5f55bbe6-d243-5766-8ccf-5c5cc88a6542
|
|
:END:
|
|
#+title: Impact on the AI and GPU Industry
|
|
#+filetags: :passepartout:economics:industry:ai:gpu:nvidia:
|
|
|
|
If a symbolic-bootstrapping architecture becomes popular, the industry structure shifts fundamentally:
|
|
|
|
**Token demand compresses.** The entire AI industry (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google — ~$50B API revenue) is built on per-token pricing. A mature Passepartout reduces token consumption to the unfamiliar 10% I/O boundary. Steady-state per-user LLM consumption drops by an order of magnitude.
|
|
|
|
**GPU inference demand plateaus in regulated industries.** Inference demand drops 80-90% in any sector where the rule book is published — which covers most economically significant sectors (finance, healthcare, industrial, government procurement, legal compliance). Nvidia's growth narrative shifts from "every transaction goes through a GPU" to "every training run needs a GPU."
|
|
|
|
**Hyperscaler competition shifts.** The race shifts from "who has the most H100s" to "who has the best domain-specific gate rules." Google's industry data advantage matters more than Azure's raw compute.
|
|
|
|
**New hardware tier emerges:** CPU-native verification appliances running Lisp microcode on RISC-V cores. Low volume (hundreds of thousands/year), high margin ($5K-50K/unit). Manufacturable at older fab nodes (28nm, 45nm) — no dependency on TSMC's leading edge.
|
|
|
|
See also: [[id:9af13fff-9725-542b-93b1-a555bc74ad72][Lisp economics]], [[id:827bc546-e887-5b7c-9b65-6392beaf0920][Verification monopoly]], [[id:13e6ae54-2d24-5aa0-b1cd-a7e8e749aa70][Self-driving Lisp Machine]]
|