Files
hermes-brain/ideas/passepartout-economics/time-estimates.org
Hermes 9b2be10c77 Restructure economics doc into 27 org-roam interlinked nodes
Replace monolithic passepartout-economics.org with directory of
org-roam style nodes, each with :ID: property and cross-references
using [[id:uuid][title]] format.

27 nodes organized by theme:
- Core: index, triad overview, agora, stoa
- Revenue: verification appliance, domain gate packages, evaluation
  harness, skill marketplace, agora usernames, PDS service, compute marketplace
- Strategy: investment thesis, moats, licensing, patents, AI industry impact
- Analysis: lisp economics, sufficiency flip, time estimates, cost structure,
  gate rule encoding, upgrade lifecycle, biology parallels, symbolics comparison
- Big money: verification monopoly, infrastructure lock-in

Old file kept as archive with redirect links to new structure.
2026-05-21 19:36:02 +00:00

1.3 KiB

Development Velocity and Timeline Estimates

At the observed velocity (v0.4.0 to v0.7.2 in a single session), the agent writes code and the symbolic engine verifies it at a cycle measured in minutes. The bottleneck is not coding speed — it is LLM API latency, ACL2 verification time, and human review of the 5% of edge cases Screamer flags.

To v1.0.0 (neurosymbolic maturity, ~4,500 lines): ~80 cycles, 3-5 weeks, ~2-3 hours of human review.

To self-driving Lisp Machine (Logos + Stoa hardware, +~6,000 lines): ~60 cycles, 2-4 weeks. The microcode must be loaded onto physical hardware and benchmarked, adding seconds per cycle.

Full Stoa (editor, browser, shell, Qt integration, ~3,500 lines): ~30 cycles, 2-3 weeks.

Total from today to full Logos + Stoa + Agora triad: 3-6 months. Most of that time is spent on design decisions and protocol specification, not on code.

The system writes the code. The human makes architectural decisions and reviews the 5% ambiguous rules.

See also: Self-driving Lisp Machine, Sufficiency flip, Investment thesis