9b2be10c77
Replace monolithic passepartout-economics.org with directory of org-roam style nodes, each with :ID: property and cross-references using [[id:uuid][title]] format. 27 nodes organized by theme: - Core: index, triad overview, agora, stoa - Revenue: verification appliance, domain gate packages, evaluation harness, skill marketplace, agora usernames, PDS service, compute marketplace - Strategy: investment thesis, moats, licensing, patents, AI industry impact - Analysis: lisp economics, sufficiency flip, time estimates, cost structure, gate rule encoding, upgrade lifecycle, biology parallels, symbolics comparison - Big money: verification monopoly, infrastructure lock-in Old file kept as archive with redirect links to new structure.
20 lines
1.3 KiB
Org Mode
20 lines
1.3 KiB
Org Mode
:PROPERTIES:
|
|
:ID: dc2e4f22-1c4c-5d4a-a151-f96e5d3b0d70
|
|
:END:
|
|
#+title: Development Velocity and Timeline Estimates
|
|
#+filetags: :passepartout:economics:development:timeline:velocity:
|
|
|
|
At the observed velocity (v0.4.0 to v0.7.2 in a single session), the agent writes code and the symbolic engine verifies it at a cycle measured in minutes. The bottleneck is not coding speed — it is LLM API latency, ACL2 verification time, and human review of the 5% of edge cases Screamer flags.
|
|
|
|
**To v1.0.0 (neurosymbolic maturity, ~4,500 lines):** ~80 cycles, 3-5 weeks, ~2-3 hours of human review.
|
|
|
|
**To self-driving Lisp Machine (Logos + Stoa hardware, +~6,000 lines):** ~60 cycles, 2-4 weeks. The microcode must be loaded onto physical hardware and benchmarked, adding seconds per cycle.
|
|
|
|
**Full Stoa (editor, browser, shell, Qt integration, ~3,500 lines):** ~30 cycles, 2-3 weeks.
|
|
|
|
**Total from today to full Logos + Stoa + Agora triad:** 3-6 months. Most of that time is spent on design decisions and protocol specification, not on code.
|
|
|
|
The system writes the code. The human makes architectural decisions and reviews the 5% ambiguous rules.
|
|
|
|
See also: [[id:13e6ae54-2d24-5aa0-b1cd-a7e8e749aa70][Self-driving Lisp Machine]], [[id:efc76898-03f7-57ba-923d-35d65da88bb7][Sufficiency flip]], [[id:5961e469-53a3-5f3c-ab72-3c83ef91963f][Investment thesis]]
|