TAM: ~60B across cloud (00B), AI API (0B), OS (00B),
social media (00B), payments (00B), productivity (0B),
compliance (0B). Even 1% is 0B/year.
Low-hanging fruit (months): verification appliance (-50K/unit),
gate rule subscriptions (0-100K/yr each), evaluation certification
(0-200K), migration services (00-500K). Year one: -12M.
Medium-term (1-3 years): compute marketplace (Agora spread), Relay
Network (per-message fees), Lisp Machine appliance (0-100K/unit).
Big money (3-10 years): verification monopoly (UL for AI agents),
infrastructure lock-in (compounding switching costs), planetary
compute marketplace (network effects at scale).
Thesis: low-hanging fruit sustains development. Medium-term builds
network effects. Big money is venture-scale. The early player
benefits from every other instance because the network effects
are positive sum — this is the AWS of provable computing.
da307c5cad