da307c5cad
TAM: ~60B across cloud (00B), AI API (0B), OS (00B), social media (00B), payments (00B), productivity (0B), compliance (0B). Even 1% is 0B/year. Low-hanging fruit (months): verification appliance (-50K/unit), gate rule subscriptions (0-100K/yr each), evaluation certification (0-200K), migration services (00-500K). Year one: -12M. Medium-term (1-3 years): compute marketplace (Agora spread), Relay Network (per-message fees), Lisp Machine appliance (0-100K/unit). Big money (3-10 years): verification monopoly (UL for AI agents), infrastructure lock-in (compounding switching costs), planetary compute marketplace (network effects at scale). Thesis: low-hanging fruit sustains development. Medium-term builds network effects. Big money is venture-scale. The early player benefits from every other instance because the network effects are positive sum — this is the AWS of provable computing.