50 lines
2.3 KiB
Markdown
50 lines
2.3 KiB
Markdown
Atoms, Bits and Cells: How to Hedge your Future in the Coming Decades
|
|
Atoms, Bits and Cells: Personal Strategies for the Coming Decades
|
|
|
|
Introduction
|
|
# The problem
|
|
## The Church of Progress
|
|
## In parabola, the past is no indictor of the future
|
|
## If not business as usual, then what?
|
|
### Drexler vs Holmgren
|
|
### Up scenario
|
|
### Down scenario
|
|
|
|
# Atoms
|
|
# Bits
|
|
# Cells
|
|
|
|
# Beyond Personal: Collective
|
|
|
|
Two singularities, disruption anyway
|
|
|
|
|
|
Decouple livelihood and economy, either by bitcoin or physical resilience
|
|
Changes in quantity become changes in quality after a few orders of magnitude
|
|
Action follows awareness only in smaller numbers, and precedes it in larger numbers
|
|
Do not fix with speech what you can fix with privacy
|
|
Do not fix on a large scale what you can fix on a small scale
|
|
Minimalism does not exist. Frugality does
|
|
Shorten supply chains
|
|
All exponential growth is unsustainable. Progressives worry about exponential carbon growth. Conservatives worry about exponential debt growth.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Holmgren's Future Scenarios as the best framework for understanding the 21st century
|
|
Climate Change is real. 2 degrees, 350-400ppm, interational agreements are not effective measures, were thought up only because they seem reasonable in policy circles
|
|
ERoEI is the most important factor you have probably never heard of
|
|
We are on a Brown Tech scenario
|
|
Holmgren's update, including monetary policy
|
|
Bitcoin is wasteful, compared to what?
|
|
If you are for degrowth, what is better than a disinflationary monetary policy?
|
|
Bitcoin can reign in Facist trends in a Brown Tech scenario by being censorship resistant
|
|
Forget wealth distribution, global economic contraction is underway and is not necessarily (or likely, due to Bitcoin) linked to wealth distrubution
|
|
Renweables are not carbon negative throughout their lifetime
|
|
Depopulation, (proactive) rewilding are positive dynamics
|
|
Sustainability = Technology * Economy. Sustainability needs to be under 1.0 (perhaps way under to make up for runaway climate change, 0.7?)
|
|
A second great depression is the best hope for the planet, as Holmgren puts it
|
|
The nested scenario is evident in Bitcoin
|
|
Credit crunch kills expensive fossil fuels like tar sands and shale oil
|
|
What do demographic predicitions look like in the coming 100 years with longevity technologies taken into account?
|
|
|
|
Relative importance of atoms categories at each time frame
|